Why do we believe in Conspiracy Theories?
To be suspicious is to be human. It’s part of our DNA. For thousands of years as human beings evolved, our ability to sense danger has helped us survive. Even today we often need to be suspicious. There’s a lot of bad people doing bad things.
But sometimes our suspicions about the world can be wrong. We might become paranoid, fearful, and lose trust in the people and systems we rely on. Sometimes conspiracies are lighthearted and innocent. Sometimes they have dangerous implications that hurt our communities and our beliefs about the world.
So what’s going on?
Why do we believe conspiracy theories?
Is it okay?
Here’s the key points of Suspicious Minds:
The brain wants clarity and order. When it doesn’t have this, it will find ways to fill the gaps.
Conspiracy theories are a result of unanswered questions and our own natural instincts.
Conspiracy theories can have dangerous results
They have a foundation and guiding principles. There’s a formula for conspiracy theories that have been used throughout history.
Conspiracy theories follow basic storytelling principles.
Our Brains look for patterns and intentions while following our own internal bias and assumptions. Both of which shape our beliefs.
1. Our brains want clarity and order, when it doesn’t have this, it will fill in the gaps.
The brain’s primary role is to keep us alive. To do this, our brains have to make sense of the world around us. It has to process everything we experience and wants to take the path of least resistance.
It wants to give order to the chaos.
One study in Amsterdam took a look at this:
Researchers put subjects in similar scenarios. Group 1 worked in a clean environment while group 2 worked at a messy cubicle. The assignment asked the subjects to look for discernible images on different slides filled with markings and lines. Some had real images hidden in the markings while some didn’t.
The subjects who worked in a messy cubicle saw more imaginary images in the slides. Meaning they saw things that weren’t really there. While the group who worked at a clean cubicle didn’t see imaginary images.
The results found: When our brains experience disorder and uncertainty they’ll find ways to restore balance. A lot of ties this means finding closure and resolution to the questions. Our brains will fill in the gaps or connect the dots, constructing resolution.
2. Conspiracy theories are a result of unanswered questions and our own natural instincts.
Conspiracy theories often provide explanations to unresolved questions we may have. Or maybe we’re unsatisfied with the official answer or there’s some contrary evidence that needs to be addressed.
Consider 9/11 or the Covid-19 Pandemic. We have a lot of questions. How? Why? Who’s responsible? Did Al Qaeda do this alone or was the US government involved to start a profitable war? Was Covid man-made, released intentionally to make money and win elections?
There’s always slivers of truth involved in conspiracies. Wars and pharmaceuticals are profitable. The right narrative can change an election. We research and study viruses in labs.
Knowing these things are true, on top of our built-in biases and assumptions about the world, we are more likely to accept the ideas. Our brains will start to say: “This makes sense. I could be possible.”
Conspiracies take questions and furnish them with unconventional answers. They take slivers of truth and surround them with new narratives and often blatant lies. The danger comes when we replace real answers with unsafe and untrue answers.
For thousands of years, conspiracies have been a part of our lives.
In Ancient Rome, a massive fire destroyed 1/3rd of the city. Rumors spread it was Emperor Nero. He didn’t want to be blamed so he deflected and blamed Christians, who were already hated at the time. As a result, they tortured and mocked them. Later historians embellished the events, claiming Emperor Nero stood on rooftops and laughed as the city burned.
Secret Societies like the Freemasons and the Illuminati have been vilified all over the world for a long time. Why? We hate secrecy and they make easy scapegoats. Rumors were spread and those societies were dismantled. Authors even wrote books blaming them for events around the world.
When we don’t understand why something happens, we often look for someone to blame. And it’s usually an easy scapegoat. We often attack opposing ideologies. And we also like to sell a good story so we use embellished language.
The Wise Men of Zion:
In 1903, an 80 page pamphlet called the “Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion” played a major role in Hitler’s ideology and motivation for the holocaust. A conspiracy in the form of a pamphlet.
Of course the pamphlet was a fake. But it was presented from the perspective of Jews and how they were going to take over the world. It describes non-jews as unthinking barbarians who shouldn’t govern themselves. And the only viable option was to take over the world in secrecy and pull the strings.
The protocols were a “guidebook” on how they were going to subvert democracy. They would manipulate the media, politics, undermine other religions, and even spread plagues and famines, recessions and assassinate people and start wars.
Everything in the pamphlet was vague, so you couldn’t catch anyone. Because of this, everything could be pinned on Jews. When something bad happened in the world and people didn’t understand why, it was the Jews fault. They were stirring things up.
The Protocols tapped into the antisemitism that already existed in the world:
In the 4th century a Saint denounced Jews as baby killing devil worshippers.
In 1215, Pope Innocent III made Jews wear distinct cloths and yellow badges of shame, which Hitler used in Nazi Germany.
In the Dark Ages, the Roman Catholic Church led mass executions of Jews.
During the Black Plague, outbreaks were blamed on Jews. People believed they were poisoning the drinking wells. Towns slaughtered their own Jews in hopes of being spared by the Plague, only to end up die anyway.
There were even rumors of the “blood libel” which said Jews drank the blood of Christians that they murdered as allegory to the Passover and used it as a medicine to heal themselves.
If Children went missing, Jews were often blamed.
The same rumors are spread today to demonize Jews and other non-Jewish groups. Whoever needs to be the bad guy of the world. These last few years we’ve heard some of the same rumors towards liberals and Hollywood based on Q-Anon conspiracies (which is one our modern day extremist groups).
In 1920, the Protocols were debunked. A German scholar discovered the protocols plagiarized from other fictional and nonfictional books, stealing ideas and even direct passages. Yet the Protocols were shared across the world and fueled the antisemitism. This also motivated Hitler. He even cited the Protocols in his own memoir, wanting to beat the Jews at their own game.
3. Conspiracy theories can have dangerous results
Fueled and motivated by the conspiracy theories about Jews, Hitler and his Nazi’s murdered 6 million Jews and started World War 2, which led to millions more people dying. He believed he had to restore Germany and rescue it from the fungus and plague of the Jews.
Extremists around the world are often motivated by their distorted views:
The Norwegian who killed 77 people at a political summer camp believed there was an Islamic conspiracy to destroy Western civilization.
The Boston marathon bomber had a copy of the Protocols of Zion.
The truck bomber of Oklahoma City who killed 168 people including 19 children, believed the current government was the New World Order and they were going to take guns away from the people.
The Waco suicide massacre was an anti-government cult with dysfunctional views.
Nearly every extremist around the world believes in a lie. They have a view of the world that distorts them and motivates them to do something drastic.
Researchers have found conspiracies form a core component to many extremists beliefs. These theories push extremists more extreme and into a dangerous direction. Conspiracies can push healthy people into a negative direction. We may not become extremists, but we might start to see the world differently, distrusting people and systems.
Conspiracies point to forces beyond our control, articulating an enemy to hate and blame, dividing the group from other non-groups, and even legitimizing violence as the only way to make change. Extremists draw on existing prejudices. They demonize and find scapegoats to vilify, and assert that urgent action is required.
Theorists often paint the world in black and white, when in reality the world is very gray. Conspiracies often ignore the nuances of life.
Conspiracies can tap into our deepest desires to protect what we love most. When we’re told someone is after our health or they want to control us or take away our freedoms, then naturally we want to resist and fight back.
But these conspiracies can also distract us from legitimate misdeeds and topics. Instead our energy follows dead ends and imaginary villains. We get lost in the wrong direction, pointing to the wrong people, while the real problem persists.
4. Conspiracy Theories have guiding principles.
Thrives on unanswered questions. They’re unproven by design. Because of this, you can’t argue with it.
Paints a picture that nothing is as it seems.
We’re purposely misled. There’s someone deliberately fabricating the truth to fool you.
The obvious answer is never correct. There’s something more sinister than meets the eye.
Accidents are planned. All faces are actually masks. Doubt everything.
Doctors are actually destroying health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, government destroys freedom, the media destroys information. Religions destroys spirituality.
The theory is as competent and powerful as the theorist needs it to be.
Everything is evil- Conspiracists are the heroes in the story (they are truth-seekers) They also speak in moral absolutes. We are good. They are evil.
Founded on hunting down gaps or voids in the narrative. If there’s a mistake in a story, that’s evidence for a conspiracy. If there’s a question without an answer, it’s a conspiracy.
Is irrefutable, impossible to dismiss, regardless of evidence, because even the evidence can be faked or part of the evil person’s doing.
They can weave whatever story they want. If the evidence stands against them, that’s because the conspiracy is working. It looks that way on purpose because someone’s pulling the strings.
They can also be as vague as they want. It protects them and shields criticism.
*We can identify conspiracy theories based on these principles, but it should be noted that its dangerous to use this framework to diminish everything as being fake.
5. They also follow basic storytelling principles.
Story has a formula. It’s been this way for thousands of years. There are stories almost completely identical that took places thousands of years apart and in different parts of the world. Why?
Our brains see the world through story. The basic plot: There’s a hero on a mission to fight the villain to save the world.
We see ourselves through story. We’re the main character. The hero. Our beliefs, religion, political views, and even our favorite sports team are the heroes. And a hero needs someone to oppose them. We need a villain.
Villains in story create contrast and duality for the imperfect, but necessary hero. We need good guys and bad guys.
The villain in conspiracies can be a single person, but most of the time it’s a cabal or organization working in secrecy, pulling the strings. The more mysterious and large the villain, the more they’re capable of. Conspiracists use the element of story to create the right narrative. There’s bad people trying to take away your rights and liberties and freedoms. They’re trying to deceive you so they can have more power and money and so they can hurt and control us.
Stories often use evil to contrast good. But in reality most bad people aren’t actually evil or sadists. Most people are greedy, lustful, angry, tired, selfish, mentally unhealthy, etc. We’re not born evil. We’re shaped and molded by experiences. Our badness is a result of many factors. And most of the time it’s our toxic belief about ourselves and others.
Extremists like Hitler believed they were doing good in the world. They had twisted views of who was the hero and who was the villain.
Part of human nature is to see the world through us and them. It’s our tribal instincts to be separated by good and bad guys. But good and evil are subjective. We’re all told a different version. We see ourselves as the good and those opposing us as the bad.
Most conspiracies point to an ominous villain or organization. The government is often the bad guy. Why? It’s large and secretive. There’s a lot going on we don’t see. But in reality the government is a complex collection of branches and systems and people. When we pull back the curtain, we’ll find a bunch of people doing their jobs. It the government flawed? Of course. People are flawed. Systems are flawed. Politicians are flawed. But does this mean the government is a secret cabal of evil villains trying to take over the world? No.
6. Our Brains look for patterns and intentions while following our internal biases and assumptions. These shape our beliefs.
Our brains also look for patterns and intentions. We often assume our eyes are like cameras and our brains are simply observing the world. But this isn’t how vision works. The brain doesn’t passively watch, it constructs.
And sometimes our brains deceive us. When we see strange things like faces in trees or images in the clouds, this is called apophenia. It’s when we find meaning in the randomness.
These illusions can be so compelling it leads us to fanciful beliefs. Our brains will start finding things we want to find. When we trick the mind or see an illusion, the curtain is pulled back.
Consider the Kanizsa Triangle:
3 pacman shapes with 3 unfinished triangles, yet our eyes see 2 triangles layered on top of each other covering 3 circles. Why? The brain is filling in the gaps. It constructs patterns we’re used to seeing. It’s showing us what we expect.
Finding patterns and drawing connections is a great evolutionary trait for humanity. It’s helped us progress and learn about the world.
Coincidences often feel like patterns. This can lead us. We’ve evolved to interpret patterns quickly. It’s helped us survive. This means we often treat every connection as meaningful by default. This can mislead us. Science, statistics, and experiments help us conclude the patterns. It takes more time, but gives us more accurate understandings.
Coincidences are the lifeblood of conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theorists actively seek out anomalies that can be construed as evidence of a conspiracy. “Connect the dots” is a mantra for theorists. “Only when the dots are connected, will the picture be seen..”
Our brains also seek intention.
When someone bumps into you, the first thought: Was it intentional? We start scanning for evidence. Did they apologize? Did they give us a mean look? Is the space crowded?
Theory of Mind is a psychological toolkit we have to read minds. It’s how we determine what someone’s thinking. It’s a shortcut.
Intentionality bias is when we assume everything is intentional. When we can’t comprehend something fully or we’re rushed, we default to our basic assumptions. It must have been intentional.
We also project ourselves on others. Projection is another toolkit and shortcut:
If someone picks up a glass of water, we immediately assume they’re going to drink it. Because it’s what we would do. We don’t expect them to bite the glass or poor it on their heads.
It’s these types of shortcuts our brains use to comprehend the world and to do it quickly. But they have their flaws. We’re prone to neglecting the countless potential difference between ourselves and the people who’s mind we attempt to read.
When it comes to conspiracies, theorists often point to patterns as clues for something sinister. They look for intentions while projecting what someone should or shouldn’t be doing in a situation.
Proportionality bias is when we want the magnitudes of events to match the magnitudes of what caused them. If something significant happens, we’re inclined to believe something significant caused it. But sometimes small things have large consequences. And when something small happens, it’s easier to accept it as random.
Example: Researchers had subjects read two different stories and choose a possible reason.
A plane loses control from an explosion and goes down.
Story A: the plane crashes and everyone dies.
Story B: the pilot safely makes an emergency landing.
People who read the more tragic ending assumed a more tragic reason, like a terrorist plot or malpractice from the airlines. Those who read a less tragic story, assumed the explosion had a more mundane reason like an electrical malfunction.
We want the cause to fit the effect. It doesn’t settle well with us when it doesn’t. We crave meaning. We see coincidences as being an answers to our life’s paths.
Confirmation bias: We seek evince to fit our expectations. Confirmation bias kicks in as soon as we get an idea. We find evidence to fit our assumptions and avoid evidence that may prove us wrong. we avoid any doubt, which drastically effects our inability to change our minds. Confirmation bias acts as a protective shield to our beliefs.
Bias assimilation: We interpret ambiguous events in light of what we already believe.
Mass Shootings: Gun-control activists see mass shootings as a reason for stricter laws. Pro-gun activists see mass shootings as a reason to carry guns
Political debates: Both sides see their candidate as coming out on top.
Sports Fans: See referees as good or bad based on the calls made towards their own team.
Both sides of the ideological divide think their beliefs are based on the best available evidence and it’s rare anyone feels the need to change their mind.
Summary:
It’s natural to be suspicious. We’re human. We want clarity and order. When there’s gaps, our brains will often find an answer, whether it’s right or wrong. Conspiracy theories lead to dangerous outcomes, even resulting in death. Conspiracies follow guiding principles and the elements of story. Our brains looks for patterns and intentions while following our internal bias and assumption about the world.
With all this said, we need to be aware of how the brain works and pay attention to how we view events and people around the world. Of course there are bad people doing bad things, but at the same time, it’s wrong to vilify someone who didn’t do anything bad. And it’s important we don’t see the world in black and white. We have to take time to understand the nuances of life.